The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer fell 11 points to minus 24 in October. Only the onset of Covid in 2020 produced a bigger monthly fall, of 25 points. The last drop of 11 points came in July 2016, after the Brexit referendum. The index is back to the levels of April to June 2026, from minus 13 in September.
All five measures fell. Expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months dropped 14 points to minus 36, and the Major Purchase Index fell 14 points to minus 22. Views of personal finances over the next year fell eight points to minus three, and over the past year seven points to minus 10. GfK surveyed 2,003 adults between 1 and 14 October.
Neil Bellamy of GfK called it "an extraordinary collapse in consumer confidence". He pointed to relentless cost of living pressures and regional conflicts adding to inflation, now 3.5 per cent, and said the optimism of the summer after a new Prime Minister was appointed had faded. GfK identified no single economic event behind the fall.
Voting intention has moved the other way. Survation, with fieldwork from 2 to 5 October, put Labour on 30 per cent, Reform UK on 24, the Conservatives on 19, the Liberal Democrats on 9 and the Greens on 8. It was Labour’s highest share in that series since December 2024. Opinium, interviewing from 7 to 9 October, had Labour on 29, Reform on 23 and the Conservatives on 20, up three points after a conference that Opinium said voters had reacted to positively. YouGov, on 18 and 19 October, had Labour on 27, the Conservatives on 23 and Reform on 22.
The polls use different methods and are not one series, and the gaps are not stable. A week earlier, on 11 and 12 October, YouGov had Labour on 24 and the Conservatives on 23. All three recent polls nevertheless put Labour first. The Liberal Democrats and Greens were in single figures with Survation and Opinium, and on 11 and 10 per cent with YouGov.
Survation also found voters less negative about the government’s record. Net confidence in its handling of the economy rose from minus 21 to minus 15 between late September and early October, and on the NHS from minus 13 to minus six. Both remained below zero.
The picture differs in Wales. More in Common found on 2 October that Plaid Cymru, which won the Senedd election in May, was holding its lead in Senedd voting intention, with Labour up seven points since May. For Westminster, its poll suggested Reform would be the largest party in Wales.
Burnham has ruled out an early general election. Asked by ITV Calendar on 25 September whether the next one would be in 2029, he said: "That’s when the next election will be." He said he could "knock that dead" and that calling an early contest would put "self-serving politics" first.
John Healey delivers his first Budget as Chancellor on 28 October. The next GfK barometer is due on 20 November, 23 days later, and will be the first measure of how households have reacted to it.