NATURE FOR CLIMATE FUND

Rating: Compared to financial year 2024‑25 Q4, the SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 2025‑26 Q4 decreased to Amber. This reflects a combination of near‑term delivery pressures and pipeline risks, despite strong historical performance and a positive long‑term outlook. Official statistics for 2024‑25 showed a significant year‑on‑year increase in tree planting, with 7,164 hectares delivered in England, the highest annual rate in over 20 years, demonstrating the Programme’s ability to scale delivery. Delivery confidence for 2025‑26 has reduced due to a contraction in the tree planting pipeline since Q3, driven by lower expected output from England Woodland Creation Offer and the Community Forests and weather‑related impacts earlier in the season. Uncertainty over funding going into the final year of delivery will also have impacted the tree planting pipeline This has resulted in forecast delivery of around ~6000ha for the year. Mitigations are in place, including strengthened resourcing, organisational restructuring and the transition to the successor Trees Programme, supported by an approved business case. The rating reflects short‑term uncertainty while longer‑term delivery confidence remains strong, underpinned by improved capability, new funding mechanisms and a clear delivery pathway.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 2024‑25 Q4, the project’s end‑date at 2025‑26 Q4 remained the same, following a one‑year extension that was agreed to enable the design and mobilisation of the successor Trees Programme. The extension provided additional time to put in place future delivery arrangements and secure the necessary approvals, while maintaining continuity of activity. The programme closed at the end of March 2026, with key transition milestones on track and no further changes to the end‑date anticipated.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25‑Q4, the project’s departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26‑Q4 increased to £176.52m CDEL and £29.88m RDEL. This increase is due to an agreed extension to the Programme to allow for the development and transition to a successor Programme. The increase in Whole Life Costs reflects the extended duration of the Programme rather than any change in scope or increase in cost per unit, with underlying delivery costs and assumptions remaining unchanged.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remains Red. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The data for the programme is taken up to the 31st of March 2025, and therefore is reflective of the financial uncertainty experienced by the programme in Q4, and difficult weather conditions during planting season. This prevented some planting occurring within the 24/25 financial year, so the programme was unable to deliver the full level of planting or peat restoration needed to meet the required trajectory towards the 2050 statutory target. However, as the programme receives data retrospectively after the end of the financial year, there is now more confidence in 24/25 delivery. The programme is predicted to deliver the highest year of annual planting since the inception of the Nature for Climate Fund, and the last 20 years. Furthermore, the programme's enabling projects have also significantly contributed to the transformation of the forestry sector for example by increasing sector capacity through grants and apprenticeships. The SRO assessment is Amber based on the data that became available in April 2025, and we anticipate subsequent ratings will be Amber when the data is available to all parties.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 31/03/2025 to 27/06/2025. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The Nature for Climate Fund programme end date has been provisionally extended to the 31st of March 2026, subject to a review in June 2025, through an extension of the existing programme business case. This allowed the programme to maintain momentum using mature delivery mechanisms for the duration of the 2025/26 financial year whilst further work is carried out to design future tree planting activities.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) remained at 928. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The overall Programme budget and scope was approved through an updated business case in 2022.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Nature for Climate Fund is increasing tree planting rates year on year, with 22/23 planting rates the highest in nearly a decade. Our work to transform the forestry sector is also starting to take effect. The Nature for Climate Peatland Grant is delivering increasing hectares of peatland restoration in England each year. Successive IPA reviews confirm that the Programme structure is broadly fit-for-purpose, with several notable strengths. However, whilst technically possible, reaching our tree planting and peatland restoration targets remains extremely challenging. Several external factors are delaying the progress of projects, including weather, sector capacity constraints, future funding uncertainty and the availability of private finance. Given this challenge, the delivery confidence for the Nature for Climate Fund is currently Red. Plans are in place to maximise delivery in Year 5 of the programme and prepare for the next phase of work. We continue to welcome support from the IPA.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained schedule to finish on 2025-03-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. The NCF Programme is now well into its delivery phase, with a range of initiatives scheduled to deliver tree planting and peatland restoration. The programme's trajectories are showing an upward trend through the remaining years of the programme, but there are several key enablers required to match the planned delivery trajectory, which steepens over that period, and these are not certain. These key enablers include landowner demand for the schemes put forward through the NCF and the ability of the wider sector to respond to that demand. There has been a significant effort to implement these enablers and improve delivery confidence for years 4-5, and for woodland creation and peatland restoration beyond NCF.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 remained at 928m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The overall Programme budget and scope was approved through an updated business case in 2022.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)