TERRESTRIAL NATURAL CAPITAL ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ confidence has strengthened following the successful publication of the first Analysis Ready Datasets (ARD) in December 2025, demonstrating the programme’s ability to deliver against commitments. This further stems from Defra’s Investment Committee approving the Full Business Case, confirming spend to deliver the NCEA programme through to closure at end 2028/29.However, overall confidence is driven by two key risks: (1) availability of prepared/processed data at the required cadence, and (2) consistency of data quality and assurance across partners. This quarter the programme has been focused on embedding lessons from the first ARD batch to improve predictability. Planning for FY 2026/27 is progressing, including agreement of a quarterly batching plan to provide earliest possible access for internal and external users.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same as last year's published end-date for March 2029. This is primarily due to the following factors, the NCEA programme was designed around a 5-year strategic sample to measure environmental condition at a national and regional scale for England’s terrestrial and freshwater landscape. To deliver this the programme needs to run for seven years, the first year focused on setting up the environmental monitoring capability, five years to the field surveys that contribute to the strategic sample and a final year to complete the analysis and publication of the data, produce the Baseline Assessment of Natural Capital and Ecosystems and to undertake programme closure activity.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the projects departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from £331m to £328m. The decrease to the departmentally agreed WLC is as a result of certainty around our future year budgets following spending review and business planning exercises in FY25/26. The Programmes final business case covering spend from FY26/27 to FY28/29 was approved by Defra Investment Committee in March 2026 which covers the final two years of our fieldwork and the programmes final year. FY28/29 is needed to complete the lab analyses of the samples, quality assurance and publication of all of the data collected by the programme via Open Government Licence, and publication of the Baseline Assessment of Natural Capital and Ecoystems, that will bring together all the knowledge and information generated by the programme in an overall assessment for England.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the SRO Quarterly Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors The assessment rating reflects ongoing delivery challenges and areas requiring focused management across the programme. The primary concern remains the publication of Analysis Ready Data (ARD) for all elements of the strategic sample over the next year, and the successful integration of this data into Defra’s policy and decision-making processes. To mitigate data risks, a coordination group has been established with partners to drive the work on ARD requirements and data availability timelines. To support delivery, the programme has established a clear scope and structure for the 2025/26 funding allocation, consolidating delivery across work-strands and partners. This clarity has enabled the definition of firm milestones, strengthened data and digital components, and reinforced benefits realisation and policy alignment for each programme element. Progress has also been made in resolving issues related to the England Ecosystem Survey. Through a structured approach involving realistic and transparent performance reporting, forecasting, risk management, and sub-contracting, the programme has stabilised delivery. Initially managed through weekly meetings, this effort is now governed via monthly operational and quarterly strategic meetings with senior leadership, delivery partners, and contractors. Lessons learned from national delivery are being applied to support the Trees Outside Woodland strand, which remains off-track. Targeted interventions are underway to bring this element back on course. To move towards a green delivery confidence rating, the programme will deliver a comprehensive plan for the publication of 2025/26 ARD datasets, including clear timelines. It will also successfully launch the NCEA Digital Search Tool to provide streamlined access to outputs. In parallel, the programme will define and respond to specific customer requirements, ensuring maximum utility of NCEA products. Continued application of robust governance and delivery practices will help maintain momentum and address off-track elements.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 01/04/2025 to 31/03/2029. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The original end-date reflected the period for which the programme had secured funding through the 2021 Spending Review; it has now been updated to reflect funding through the 2025 Spending Review, which will take the programme through to closure . The NCEA programme was designed around a 5-year strategic sample to measure environmental condition at a national and regional scale for England’s terrestrial and freshwater landscape. To deliver this the programme needs to run for seven years, the first year focused on setting up the environmental monitoring capability, five years to the field surveys that contribute to the strategic sample and a final year to complete the analysis and publication of the data, produce the Baseline Assessment of Natural Capital and Ecosystems and to undertake programme closure activity.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 125 to 331. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The Whole Life Costs now including the costs of the last three years of the strategic sample (25/26-27/28) and the final year (28/29) needed to complete the lab analyses of the samples, quality assurance and publication of all of the data collected by the programme via Open Government Licence, and publication of the Baseline Assessment of Natural Capital and Ecoystems, that will bring together all the knowledge and information generated by the programme in an overall assessment for England. Previous Whole Life Cost figures only included the funding secured through the 2021 Spending Review where as the revised Whole Life Costs include the additional four years through to programme closure.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. This rating reflects that while the Programme has made good progress, including achieving a number of deliverables, embedding delivery and governance structures and taking steps to develop the digital infrastructure necessary to deliver datasets to customers there has been under delivery in some key areas. The Programme is actively managing all known challenges, and most are considered to be improving, and have shown no major cause for concern at this stage. Following the IPA Gate 0 review in September 2023, the programme was rated amber and we have taken positive measures to action the recommendations in their action plan and increase the likelihood of successful delivery.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained schedule to finish on 2025-04-01. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Programme end date is 31/03/2025 and is based on the SR-2021 funding settlement. The current programme will deliver national and some regional scale estimates of ecosystem and natural capital asset extent, location and condition. To obtain the finer granularity that customers seek for their decisions and evaluations, additional capital funding will be required to extend the programme for 3 years. Stopping at the end of the FY 24/25 would leave additional benefits unrealised. Hence, we are working with partners and stakeholders to prepare an SR-24 bid to enable the programme to continue for a further 3 years, and evaluate business-as-usual options post-2028.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 remained at 125m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme's approved budget for 2024/25 is 56.86 million. 2024/25 work is planned on an over programmed approach equating to 3.75 million (60.61 million) above the 2024/25 budget. The programme has a range of implementable measures to control and monitor spend, and R&D programmes have a history of underspend across the Defra group. We are therefore confident expenditure will not exceed available funds.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)