FLOOD AND COASTAL EROSION RISK MANAGEMENT

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained amber. This is primarily due to concerns around work being conducted to manage the transition from the current programme to the next programme commencing on 1 April 2026

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) remained at 4,613.000m

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The challenge of managing and resourcing the transition from the current programme to the next programme commencing on 1 April 2026, including changes to: funding policy, how pipeline projects are identified, and organisational design to deliver the next programme. The Environment Agency and Defra are progressing actions to meet this challenge. However, for the current programme, the Defra Secretary of State has agreed a two-year (2024/25 & 2025/26) target of 52,000 properties better protected, which equates to 140,272 by the end of the now 5 year programme. Delivery confidence assessments for 2025/26 show that the programme is currently on track to achieve this target by 31 March 2026 and this assessment was supported by an Infrastructure Project Authority review in January 2025.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 decreased from 31/03/2027 to 31/03/2026. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ Minister Hardy has announced the next programme will begin a year early on 1 April 2026, with the current programme therefore becoming 5 years and ending on 31 March 2026.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from 5664 to 4613. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ to reflect the programme end date being brought forward to March 2026.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: The Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 is Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The investment programme had a challenging start arising from the combined impact of COVID-19, a shortage of skills in the infrastructure sector, and higher than forecast inflation and increased material costs. As a result, the Environment Agency and Defra have produced a revised business case and spending profile that takes into account these impacts, while still maintaining focus on better protecting properties from flooding and coastal erosion. The amber rating reflects ongoing risks associated with: securing partnership funding from other public and private organisations; reliance on other risk management authorities to deliver 40% of the programme; and the impact of revised accounting rules that require approval from HM Treasury to reclassify a portion of existing CDEL funding as RDEL. The Environment Agency has been improving other risk management authority access to its frameworks; simplifying business cases and assurance; and improving access to information and training and guidance.

Schedule: The project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 is 2027-03-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. Defra and HM Treasury have agreed a 6-year funding settlement for the Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Investment Programme between April 2021 to March 2027.

Cost: The project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 is 5664m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme has been impacted by capacity and capability issues and increased cost of delivery, primarily through high levels of inflation. This slowed down delivery resulting in lower expenditure than originally planned in the early years of the programme. A revised programme business case has been agreed with Defra with a revised spending profile, but this does not alter the total funding allocation to the programme.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)