LOWER THAMES CROSSING

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 improved from Amber to Green. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The LTC project secured additional public funding with £1.66bn in the Third Road Investment Strategy for the years 2026/27 and 2028/29 which includes the £891m announced at Autumn Budget 2025 and funding previously committed for those years. The Government also confirmed in 25/26 that the preferred finance model at this stage of the project is the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model. This strengthens confidence in delivery and steps are being taken to prepare for a transaction with the private sector. The NISTA DCA rating for 25/26 Q4 is Amber, whilst we recognise that there are still risks to delivery, the SRO is content that sufficient mitigations were in place as of March-26 and therefore rated the DCA as Green. The project DCA is reviewed monthly. The Outline Business Case was updated and approved by the DfT Investment Committee in October 2025. This marks the transition from full public sector funding to a future private sector RAB model, with the private sector to deliver the remainder of the scheme and take on Dartford Crossing operations in 2028. The DfT team working on the project has expanded to reflect the new work required on legislation and regulation, and the SRO role during 25/26 moved from National Highways to DfT to reflect this broader scope.

Schedule: The project was granted Development Consent on 25 March 2025. The project was re-baselined in October 2025 to inform Autumn Budget 2025 decision making where the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model was selected as the preferred financing model. An Accounting Officer Assessment was undertaken to support this decision. The project remains on course to deliver as set out at Autumn Budget. We expect the existing Dartford Crossing and LTC project to move from public to private ownership in 2028. The main tunnelling phase for the LTC is expected to begin in 2028 and the target date for the road to be open for traffic is the early to mid-2030’s .

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the projects departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from £8950,220m to £10629,020m. This is primarily due to schedule delay, the first delay was due to affordability and planning consent delays as set out in the Written Ministerial Statement issued 9 March 2023 which re-phased construction by 2 Years. A further delay to the DCO decision was announced by the Secretary of State in October 2024 extended the decision deadline to May 2025. The cost increase incorporates the prolongation and inflationary impacts following these two schedule delays which required the project to re-baseline. It should be noted that it is the intention to split the Whole Life Cost between both Public and Private finance under the Regulated Asset Base model. The transition to private finance is currently expected to occur in 2028. To note: the figures in the Annual Assessment may differ to those in this narrative due to NISTA deflating costs forecast for later years.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The DCO decision date was the subject of a Written Ministerial Statement and was extended from the 4 October 2024 until 23 May 2025, with consent granted on 25 March 2025. The key strategic risks remain mainly on the complexity of the activity needed to take the Project through to future funding decisions.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 20/04/2034. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The project was subject to a Written Ministerial Statement on the 9 March 2023 re-phasing construction by 2 Years. The programme was re-baselined to reflect the March 2023 Written Ministerial Statement. This had a direct impact on the Open for Traffic date. This baseline is no longer viable after a second Written Ministerial Statement was issued on the 4 October 2024 extending the Development Consent Order Decision date until 23 May 2025 in order to allow more time for the application to be considered further, including as part of the spending review [Development Consent Order Consent granted 25 March 2025]. The project is currently working on the impact to the Open for Traffic following the second Written Ministerial Statement.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) remained at 8950. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 is 8950m. The project is currently forecasting within the approved budget. The spending review 2025 and the formal decision on the preferred funding option could impact the whole life costs of the project.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The key strategic risks remain mainly the consenting process and loss of momentum. The project will be updating its overall cost and schedule in line with the Written Ministerial Statement as the project manages the Written Ministerial Statement, plus the pressures on capital investment from inflation, the continuing Development Consent Order process, and the complexity of the activity needed to enable a funding investment decision.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 increased from 2032-03-10 to 2034-04-20. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Written Ministerial Statement issued on the 9 March 2023 confirmed government commitment to the Programme and that construction would be rephased by two years, against the current approved baseline. This was to allow more time to take into account stakeholder views and prepare an effective and deliverable plan, while helping to meet wider inflationary pressures. The project has now re-baselined to reflect the March 2023 Written Ministerial Statement.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 increased from 8309m. to 8950m. This is primarily due to the following factors. This is primarily due to the following factors, inflation, and prolongation costs. This figure is the Most Likely capex cost in outturn prices.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)