TRANSPENNINE ROUTE UPGRADE

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 25/26-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to continued strong programme performance and integration of programmes across the north of England. To date, £7.3bn has been committed to the upgrade, with the Prime Minister announcing in March 2025 an additional £415m to maintain programme delivery and support passengers to travel by rail whilst major works are taking place along the TRU route. Infrastructure delivery continues to be delivered to time and budget with electrification works on the line between York and Church Fenton completed in August 2025 enabling electric operations on 25% of the Transpennine route. Major works were commenced at Huddersfield station in September 2025 with new bridges and longer platforms delivered as well as a new train stabling facility at Hillhouse. Benefits delivery remains on schedule with the bulk of improvements being delivered by the end of the 2020s (when the line of route between Huddersfield and York will be fully upgraded) and the remainder by the mid-2030s (when digital signalling and the section of the route between Huddersfield and Stalybridge will complete). 95% of the programme is now in either the Design or Delivery phase with several significant blockades taking place in 2026 to renew track and install overhead electrification. Comprehensive customer handling plans are in place and routine assurance by DfT teams is carried out to test their suitability; to date disruption across the route continues to be handled well with high passenger satisfaction scores. TransPennine Trains' existing diesel-only fleet will also be replaced to maximise the new electrification capability. A procurement has been undertaken and a contract award is expected in summer 2026. A Cost Efficiency panel, chaired by DfT's Non-Executive Director to the programme, continues to oversee activities to deliver the identified cost efficiency targets. In February 2026 a new Shareholder Forum was established to enable the Accounting Officers within the Department for Transport and Network Rail to consider programme delivery and future challenges to benefits realisation.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained at 17/10/2041 and was informed by a baselining exercise that aligned all Key Output realisation dates with Programme Business Case 2 (PBC2) commitments. The bulk of TRU's benefits will be delivered by the mid-2030s, with additional digital signalling capability becoming available by the early 2040s. The programme has a stable integrated schedule based on Baseline 2.1 agreed by Enterprise partners which maintains Key Output dates for KO1 to KO5b as agreed at PBC2, as well as the PBC2 funding position for all infrastructure sub-projects. Baseline 2.1 created a stable programme baseline position with a realistic and achievable critical path now committed to with both delivery Alliances as part of the W34 and E234 contract awards. It also forecasts P50 and P80 delivery dates and timelines for benefits delivery. The approval of the TOC-Business Case in March 2025, confirmed alignment of train-operator related delivery plans with Baseline 2.1. KO2 (electrification of services between Manchester Victoria and Stalybridge) was completed ahead of schedule at the end of 2024, and KO3 (electrification of TransPennine Services between York and Church Fenton)was delivered on time in summer 2025.

Cost: The departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at FY2025/26 Q4 increased from £11,056m to £11,199m. This is stated in nominal terms. This is primarily due to re-alignment of portfolio budgets with the current forecast as the previous budget position was not sufficient. The current forecast has changed marginally from £11,204m to £11,210m.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to continued strong programme performance, integration of programmes across the north of England, and senior management turnover. To date, £7.3bn has been committed to the upgrade, with the Prime Minister announcing in March 2025 an additional £415m to maintain programme delivery and support passengers to travel by rail whilst major works are taking place along the TRU route. Infrastructure delivery continues to be delivered to time and budget with works completing at the end of 2024 between Manchester Victoria and Stalybridge, facilitating electric Northern and TransPennine services for the first time. Works to upgrade and electrify the line between York and Church Fenton have recently concluded and await ORR authorisation. This will enable electric TransPennine services to operate along this section of the route later in 2025. Benefits delivery remains on schedule with the bulk of improvements being delivered by the end of the 2020s (where the line of route between Huddersfield and York will be fully upgraded) and the remainder by the mid-2030s (where digital signalling and the section of the route between Huddersfield and Stalybridge will complete). 95% of the programme is now in either the Design or Delivery phase with several significant blockades taking place in 2025, most notably a 30-day closure of the railway at Huddersfield in August. Comprehensive customer handling plans are in place and routine assurance by DfT teams is carried out to test their suitability; to date disruption across the route continues to be handled well with high passenger satisfaction scores. TransPennine Trains' existing diesel-only fleet will also be replaced to maximise the new electrification capability. Whilst detailed discussions are taking place regarding their specification, procurement is progressing with a contract award expected in summer 2025. A Cost Efficiency panel, chaired by DfT's Non-Executive Director to the programme, has also been established to monitor progress towards securing additional efficiencies. In February 2025, a new Managing Director commenced in role, as well as a new permanent SRO, bringing stability to the programme's leadership.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 17/10/2041. This is primarily due to a recent, successful re-baselining exercise that sees all Key Output realisation dates aligned with Programme Business Case 2 (PBC2) commitments. The bulk of TRU's benefits will be delivered by the mid-2030s, with additional digital signalling capability becoming available by the early 2040s. The programme has a stable integrated schedule that was recently updated. Baseline 2.1 was agreed last year between Enterprise partners and maintains Key Output dates for KO1 to KO5b as agreed at PBC2, as well as the PBC2 funding position for all infrastructure sub-projects. Baseline 2.1 creates a stable programme baseline position with a realistic and achievable critical path now committed to with both delivery Alliances as part of the W34 and E234 contract awards. It also forecasts P50 and P80 delivery dates and timelines for benefits delivery. The approval of the TOC-Business Case in March 2025, confirmed alignment of train-operator related delivery plans with Baseline 2.1. KO2 (electrification of services between Manchester Victoria and Stalybridge) was completed ahead of schedule at the end of 2024, and KO3 (electrification of TransPennine Services between York and Church Fenton) is on track to be delivered by summer 2025.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from 11104 to 11056. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ Adjustment to reflect change in budget post Spending Review Phase 1.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The complexity of the regional timetable has the potential to place pressure on benefits. Timetable modelling due to conclude later this year expected to alleviate this. TRU is also dependent on adjacent projects in Manchester and Leeds to deliver its full benefits, but doesn't control their approvals and funding. Governance has been implemented to ensure regional integration.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained schedule to finish on 2041-10-17. This is primarily due to the following factors. TRU's Programme Business Case 2 (PBC2) funding approval was announced in December 2023. PBC2 has led to some replanning but with Entry into Service dates remaining as per the baseline (which will see full passenger benefit realisation by the mid 2030s). Negotiations between Network Rail and the supply chain to formally place into contract two of the largest sub-projects in the programme (W34 - Huddersfield to Leeds, and E234 - Church Fenton to Leeds) are on track to conclude by Summer 2024.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 decreased from 11453m. to 11104m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The previous 11.453bn figure was stated at TRU Programme Business Case Update 1 (May 2021). Since then, we have received approval for TRU Programme Business Case Update 2 (May 2023) - 11.183bn. In the intervening two years, the programme has experienced headwinds in project costs and has been re-stated using March 2023 OBR inflation forecasts, but offset by efficiencies totalling 1.6bn. The 11.103bn figure was set following at DfT Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) Portfolio Re-baselining exercise in the summer of 2023.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)