EAST COAST DIGITAL PROGRAMME

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the National Infrastructure & Service Transformation Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 25/26-Q4 is at RED. The NISTA review team noted that the partnership model continues to be the correct approach, and there have been positive changes in programme leadership. The review team highlighted that there is a need to re-baseline the programme, and that the programme is complex with several risks to delivery. They raised 19 recommendations to address. Recommendations include in the areas of ETCS freight train retrofitment, clearer accountabilities of leadership, and to continue the early identification of emerging risks to delivery.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's baselined end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained at 14/10/2030. This date will be subject to a rebaseline exercise during 2026. The ECDP’s schedule has been set up to deliver ETCS on the ECML in a phased migration. The full migration to ETCS operations on the Northern City Line with the removal of conventional signals was achieved as planned in May 2025. In FY25/26, activities have focused on enabling works for the ETCS section on the ECML between Welwyn to Hitchin to provide a driver training area, due to enter into service August 2026. Works have included vehicle fitment, on-track testing and systems assurance. This milestone forecast has moved from December 2025 to August 2026, due to encountering challenges around system testing and assurance that will provide lessons for future ETCS schemes. The first mainline route section, originally due April 2027, is subject to change control as part of the rebaseline exercise.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 increased from £3,465m to £3,764m (in Nominal Prices). The programme anticipates that inflation will materialise as a key issue in the later years of the programme. As we move into the 2026-27 reporting cycle, the key risk to maintaining overall programme cost will be the cost of vehicle fitment and ETCS trackside infrastructure on the ECML. The programme is actively looking at how these costs can be managed whilst protecting the programme’s benefits. While delivery continues, ECDP is also maturing its delivery model to ensure it remains the enabler for future ETCS schemes.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The IPA review team recognised the complexity of the programme, highlighting the technical challenge and a complex stakeholder environment. It praised the programme’s overall approach to managing this complexity, highlighting the success of the programme’s partnership model and strong capability across key resources. The review team highlighted several risks to delivery and raised 17 recommendations to address this. This included ensuring the ECDP is set up optimally to manage the systems integration challenge, ensuring that the ECDP has the right governance and processes to resolve key issues, and developing the programme’s approach to retrofitting freight locomotives with ETCS. The review team’s recommendations have been accepted with clear time-bound actions identified to ensure they are addressed. Notable changes include significant updates to ECDP’s operating model, governance and management information.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 14/10/2030. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The ECDP’s schedule has been set up to deliver ETCS on the ECML and the NCL in a phased migration. In FY24/25, activities have focused on delivering the first phases of this migration. This includes the full migration to ETCS operation on the NCL due May 2025 (achieved), as well as the implementation of an ETCS overlay on the ECML between Welwyn to Hitchin to provide a driver training area, due December 2025. Good progress was made in these activities in FY24/25. The NCL was successfully migrated to 100% ETCS operation with the conventional “traffic light” signals removed in May 2025, a significant programme milestone. Various enabling works have also been completed for the ETCS overlay between Welwyn to Hitchin. This includes infrastructure commissioning, progressive systems assurance, vehicle fitment, and on track testing. As such, this milestone has maintained its forecast for the next financial year, although some delivery pressures have been acknowledged. The programme’s end date remains unchanged at 14/10/2030. This end date is dependent on the programme’s approach to the later migration phases. No changes to the baseline of these dates were made in FY24/25 but this is currently under review. This review seeks to assess the impact of potential changes to ECDP’s funding profile and learnings from the first phases of migration.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from 3477 to 3465. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ Programme whole life costs have remained stable since the last annual report. Despite inflation remaining a key risk to the programme this has not yet materialised into higher whole life costs through use of contingency, leveraging commercial tools, and a programme wide efficiencies campaign. As we move into the 2025-26 reporting cycle, the key risk to maintaining overall programme cost will be the cost vehicle fitment and the cost of ETCS trackside infrastructure on the ECML. The programme is actively looking at how these costs can be managed whilst protecting the programme’s benefits.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme received an AMBER rating at its annual review held in September 2023. The reviewers praised the unique and innovative approach to delivery used on the programme and the engagement of delivery partners in its output. In addition, they also highlighted several risks to delivery which required attention by the team. This included for example improved communication with stakeholders over delivery plans and ensuring key personnel and skills are retained. In order to address these challenges the review team provided 12 recommendations for ECDP to implement ahead of the next planned review in October 2024. Since the review 8 of the 12 recommendations have been implemented on the programme with a clear plan for the delivery of the remaining 4 ahead of the next review. Notable changes delivered via these recommendations include an update to the programme delivery model, improved ED&I monitoring as well as changes to reporting.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained schedule to finish on 2030-10-14. This is primarily due to the following factors. Final programme completion remains on schedule as at the end of the reporting year. Since the last annual report a number of Tier 1 milestones have been achieved by the programme including the entry into service of the ETCS testing facility at the Rail Innovation and Development Centre where all ETCS fitted trains will be tested and the commissioning of ETCS infrastructure on the Welwyn to Hitchin Overlay Area, where conventional signals will be retained to allow the progressive training of drivers. In addition to these Tier 1 milestones, the 2023-24 reporting year also saw both the running of ETCS trains and the start of mass-driver training for the first time on the Northern City Line. However, despite overall programme completion remaining on schedule there has been delays to several intermediate milestones over this reporting year. This includes for example milestones related to vehicle fitment and infrastructure commissioning. These delays have primarily been driven by loss of access to the railway to complete infrastructure works and constraints in the supply chain

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 remained at 3477m. This is primarily due to the following factors. At the end of the reporting year, programme whole life costs have remained stable since the last annual report. Despite inflation remaining a key risk to the programme this has not yet materialised into higher whole life costs through use of contingency and leveraging commercial tools such as bulk purchase of materials to gain cost savings. As we move in the 2024-25 reporting cycle, the key risk to maintaining overall programme cost will be the affordability of fleet fitment within the freight and OTM sectors. The programme is actively looking at how it can reduce cost in these sectors through working with the sector.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)