Midland Main Line Electrification (MMLE) Programme

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The progression of electrification will be dependent on the development of a robust business case that sets out a clear narrative on the rationale to progress the programme. Successful delivery of the programme remains feasible although funding is subject to the outcome of the 2025 Spending Review.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 31/12/2032. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ If MMLE is funded in the 2025 Spending Review, the schedule will be reviewed by Network Rail, and milestones rebaselined as required. It is not known if this will result in a change to the programme end date.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) remained at 1468. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ Due to changes in the procurement timeline and Spending Review uncertainty, the planned investment decision was deferred to 25/26 and the FBC was not finalised and approved during 24/25.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The progression of the electrification will be dependent on the development of a robust business case that sets out a clear narrative on the rationale to progress the project and establishes an efficient delivery methodology and associated procurement strategy. It is intended to consider the investment decision on the project in the summer of 2024.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 increased from 2030-12-31 to 2032-12-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. Network Rail have provided updated a programme schedule, that forecasts completion by early 2031, this is similar to the previous schedule, and now benefits from the use of a QSRA. This assessment assumes that supply chain contracts are awarded in March 2025, which will be subject to business case approvals in the later part of 2024.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 remained at 1468m. This is primarily due to the following factors. Economic case has now been refreshed that includes a revised cost plan and updated whole life costs.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)