CHINOOK CAPABILITY SUSTAINMENT PROGRAMME (CSP)

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Continued uncertainty around actual infrastructure cost and schedule (mitigations underway to deliver programme milestones without supporting infrastructure), ability to develop required information solutions that are affordable and deliverable on schedule and, workforce shortages in key areas. 2. Value engineering is underway to ensure the programme remains affordable.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same at 31/12/2030. This is contingent on mitigations around delivering training ahead of infrastructure delivery.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from £1913.51M to £1948.89M. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. The Whole Life Cost forecast is subject to further review due to Infrastructure cost growth - the scale of which is yet to be determined. 2. There is similar uncertainty around information systems cost and deliverability that are currently being assessed.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors. Aircraft certification risk (information sharing between the US and the UK); workforce capability shortfalls.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 31/12/2030.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 1861 to 1913. This is primarily due to the following factors. The UK's decision in 2021 to defer H-47(ER) aircraft production by 3 years, compounded by adverse inflation and Forex cost increases which has resulted in significant cost growth. However, negotiations with the US Government and other measures taken since June 2023 have reduced the growth to an affordable level without reducing the scope of the Programme or impacting capability.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors, recorded in the Infrastructure and Projects Authority Gateway 0/3 Review. Aircraft certification risk (information sharing between the US and the UK) and workforce capability shortfalls. Despite the increased costs to the programme following the 3-year deferral, the programme remains affordable, subject to HM Treasury approval.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained schedule to finish on 2030-12-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. A recent Scheduled Risk Analysis was conducted by the Delivery Team, which subsequently formed the basis of the Review Note submitted to the Investments Approvals Committee to re-baseline the programme following the 3-year deferral. Targeted efforts to reconcile programme schedules, assumptions and risks into a programme-wide integrated Master Schedule are due to be completed in April 2024.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 increased from 1602m to 1861m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The UK decision in 2021 to defer H-47(ER) aircraft production by 3 years, compounded by adverse inflation and Forex cost increases, resulted in significant cost growth. However, negotiations with the US Government and other measures taken since June 2023 have reduced the growth to an affordable level without reducing the scope of the Programme or impacting capability.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)