SUBMARINE WATERFRONT INFRASTRUCTURE FUTURE

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 remained at Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Despite positive progress, there are still many challenges in the delivery environment which will prevent completion within the approved time and cost envelope. 2. The main focus across the projects continues to be design completion, recent interventions have been targeted at pace of design decision making and proportionate approvals. 3. Whilst DCA remains Red there are early positive signs of the interventions, and the leadership are focussed on embedding these targeted interventions into normal business. 4. Significant levels of risk/uncertainty in the programme remain with a reset underway.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remains undetermined. The programme will be reset during FY26.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from £2190.70M to £2066.20M. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. The programme is managing its Whole Life Costs in conjunction with the MOD's Strategic Planning Cycle. 2. The estimated Whole Life Costs adjustment down is now taking into account a revised financial profile driven by a reduced funding provision in the early years of the Annual Budgetary Cycle. 3. The programme required a substantial reset. This will see increased confidence in the cost estimates and forecasts.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: The Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 is RED, compared with the project's assessment last year of AMBER. This is due to the following factors. The main focus through the year has been design. Velocity has not been as forecast owing to a backlog of approving/closing out design packages at the end of each phase. There has been key interventions in simplifying design in year and initiatives are underway to reduce the backlog, both of which will enable the transition to construction. Actions are ongoing to recover the delivery confidence, mature the design and reduce the significant levels of risk/uncertainty in the programme. This will culminate in a reset during financial year 2025.

Schedule: The project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 is exempt. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme will undergo a reset during financial year 2025. The Baseline to be set following approval of the Supplier Commitment Schedule, which will outline the agreed delivery timelines, quantity of materials and services provided by the supplier.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 1428 to 2190. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme is managing its whole life cost (WLC) in conjunction with the MOD's Annual Budgetary Cycle. Confidence in the WLC will be a critical outcome of the programme reset.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remains at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. Designs have matured, demolition and site preparation have continued, and all contracts for the main construction works have been placed. Timely completion now depends on achieving the required pace in construction, which remains exposed to significant risks in the delivery environment. 2024 is a critical year for SWIF.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the programme's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained scheduled to finish on 2027-10-31.

Cost: The project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 is 1428m. This is primarily due to the following factors. Final construction contracts awarded and a maturing view on costs informed by design development and engagement with the wider supply chain.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)