CORE PRODUCTION CAPABILITY

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 increased to Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Reflects delivery of the final core for the Astute class of submarines and increasing maturity of the work required to deliver the core manufacturing capability required for the next generation of UK (and Australian) attack submarines. 2. Work continues with Rolls-Royce Submarines to to ensure timely delivery of the first of a new core type required for the Dreadnought-class of submarines.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same from 31/12/2043 to 31/12/2043.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally-agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 increased from £5930.6M to £8877.8M. This is primarily due to an expansion in the programme scope to create the manufacturing capability needed to produce cores for the next generation UK and Australian attack submarines. This cost increase is based on early estimates for the work required and will change as detailed design and planning work proceeds and is reflected in Departmental budgets allocated to the programme.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at RED. This is primarily due to the following factors. Ongoing challenges associated with achieving the required delivery date for the first Dreadnought submarine nuclear core and the importance of that milestone to sustaining the Continuous at Sea Deterrent. Work continues with Rolls-Royce Submarines to address the risks involved and ensure core delivery remains aligned to Dreadnought Boat 1 delivery progress, whilst also delivering the last core for the Astute class of submarines.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 30/04/2028 to 31/12/2043. This is primarily due to the following factors. Increased scope. Programme end-date has been adjusted as this is the date by which the core manufacturing capabilities necessary to manufacture cores for the next generation of UK (and Australian) attack submarines is planned to achieve Full Operating Capability. This element of the programme was given Ministerial Approval in October 24 and the increased scope has now been incorporated.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 4051 to 5930. This is primarily due to the following factors. Scope change to generate the manufacturing capability to deliver cores for the next generation UK and Australian attack submarines. This cost increase reflects early estimates for some of the work required to generate this capability and will change/increase as detailed design and development work proceeds and is reflected in Departmental budgets allocated to the programme.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure and Projects Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. Ongoing challenges associated with achieving the required delivery date for the first Dreadnought submarine nuclear core and the importance of that milestone to sustaining the Continuous at Sea Deterrent. The programme is working closely with the supplier to address the risks involved to ensure core delivery remains aligned to Dreadnought Boat 1 delivery progress, whilst delivering the last core for the Astute-class of submarines.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained scheduled to finish on 2028-04-30. This will need to be revised to reflect scope changes later this year as a result of core requirements for AUKUS, the revised scope will likely be approved in mid 2024.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 increased from 3772m to 4051m. This is primarily due to the following factors. Inflation cost increases.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)