LIGHTNING PROGRAMME

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 increased to GREEN. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. The Initial Procurement Phase Full Operating Capability has been achieved, the benefits set out in the mandate have been delivered or are on track, and the Programme is now well positioned to transition responsibility to the Responsible Senior Owner and move into the Second Procurement Phase. 2. The GREEN rating was confirmed at Feb-26's Gateway Level 5 Review where the Review Team concluded that the Initial Procurement Phase of the UK’s F35 Lightning Programme had met its mandate and was ready for Graduation from the GMPP.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same at 31/03/2026.

Cost: Exempt under Section 43 - Commercial interests

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors. The biggest ongoing risk to Full Operating Capability (FOC) and the principal reason for the continuing Amber rating remains the provision of suitably qualified and experienced engineers to meet the operational workforce requirements. Recruitment of additional engineers began in April 2023, although it will take time for all the extra personnel to be trained and gain the necessary experience. Aircrew numbers and the sustainment of the cyber workforce also present challenges to Force growth. Despite these concerns, a high degree of confidence remains that FOC will be delivered to the approved timescale.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 31/12/2025 to 31/03/2026. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Lightning platforms reported Out of Service Date remains 2069 and the Lightning Full Operating Capability remains scheduled to be achieved no later than 31 Dec 2025. At the end of FY 2025/26 the first procurement phase will be complete with 48 F-35B aircraft delivered and two front-line squadrons operating.

Cost: Section 43 - Commercial interests

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The biggest ongoing risk to Full Operating Capability (FOC) is the provision of suitably qualified and experienced engineers to meet the operational workforce requirements. Successful delivery of FOC to time, cost and quality appears feasible but issues exist requiring management attention. These appear resolvable at this stage and, if addressed promptly, should not present a cost/schedule overrun.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 decreased from 2069-03-31 to 2025-12-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme previously reported the Out of Service Date of the aircraft in 2069 as the project end date. In accordance with IPA guidance, the end date now reflects the end of the Initial Procurement Phase.

Cost: Exempt under Section 43 of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (Commercial Interests) - Commercial interests.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)