PROTECTOR

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 remained at Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Although Protector has received the financial approval required to achieve the Initial Operating Capability this year, the programme is awaiting approval for a Review Note which proposes a re-baselining of milestones and a route to a Green rating. 2. Furthermore, sufficiently trained crew numbers, Full Motion Video metadata dissemination issues and weapons testing delays are contributing to reduced Delivery Confidence.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same at 30/06/2026. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Although the reported end date remains unchanged from Q4 24/25, the programme is awaiting approval for a Review Note which will revise all future milestones including the project end date.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from £1523M to £1565M. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Protector Availability and Support Solution contract award and amendment of the budget numbers to reflect that. 2. Delays of Ground Support Equipment acquisition for in-service/IOC based on item lead times. 3. Reprofile of the Direct Commercial Sales 2 (DCS2) contract. 4.Costs increases driven by revised estimate of DCS2 for Rev E deliverables.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at RED. This is primarily due to the following factors. Although Protector has received the financial approval required to achieve the Initial Operating Capability (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) milestone later this year, the programme is awaiting approval for a Review Note which proposes a re-baselining of milestones and a route to a Green rating. Furthermore, workforce shortages and weapons testing delays are contributing to reduced Delivery Confidence.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 30/06/2026. This is primarily due to the following factors. No change in project end-date.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 1463 to 1523. This is primarily due to the following factors. Foreign Exchange Rate increases, inflation, and the acceleration of future capability enhancements has resulted in an increase in the Programme’s costs for which an uplift in the Approved Budgetary Level is being sought.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure and Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 decreased from Amber to Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. Despite significant challenges, particularly relating to Equipment, Infrastructure and Information Defence Lines of Development, the Protector programme maintained its Amber Delivery Confidence Assessment and continued to manage risks and work through mitigations to progress towards the key milestones. Following the December 23 Gateway 0/4 (Strategic Assessment/Readiness for Service) Review, the Delivery Confidence has been moved to Red in response to a delay in receiving approval to re-baseline the Programme’s milestones and provides the route to Green.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 decreased from 2038-03-30 to 2026-06-30. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme previously reported the Out of Service Date as the project end date. In accordance with IPA guidance, the end date now reflects the point after Full Operating Capability (FOC) has been achieved and the Programme transferred to Business as Usual and graduated from the GMPP.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 increased from 1345m to 1463m. This is primarily due to the following factors. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Review Note has captured and fairly attributed cost growth as appropriate, to programmatic and macro-economic factors that have affected the delivery and affordability of the Programme. Foreign Exchange Rate increases are a significant factor for the cost growth.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)