MOD · MOD_0120_2021-Q2
Department page: Ministry of Defence
| Data as at | Rating | End date | Whole-life cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2024 | Red (NISTA's independent assessment) | 1 June 2027 | £2,053m (price basis not stated) |
| March 2025 | Red (the department's own assessment) | 31 December 2027 | £1,962.75m (price basis not stated) |
| March 2026 | Red (the department's own assessment) | 1 July 2030 | £2,128.05m (in 2024/25 prices) |
Each year’s cost is shown with its price basis. Costs are not compared between years: the March 2024 and March 2025 reports state no price basis, and from March 2026 costs are in 2024/25 prices.
This is the department’s own commentary. It may use different prices from the table above, so its figures may not match.
Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 remained at Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Several factors have caused delays to the Programme’s In-Service Date and subsequent milestones. 2. The delays are the result of contractor performance and schedule optimism bias, challenges within the global supply chain, retention of an appropriately skilled workforce at the modification facility and an increase in certification complexity and requirements.
Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same at 31/12/2027. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Although the reported end date remains unchanged from Q4 24/25, milestones are being revised through a programme rebaselining exercise.
Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from £1962M to £1937M. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Updated estimate of costs following modelling of the latest price proposal.
Rating: The Project's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 is RED, compared with the Infrastructure and Projects Authority's assessment last year of RED. This is due to the following factors. Whilst a sufficient budget was issued to the SRO, the delay in obtaining final approval of the Full Business Case is impacting across several areas of the Programme, particularly the sustainment contract.
Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 01/06/2027 to 31/12/2027. This is primarily due to the following factors. Challenges within the global supply chain, retention of an appropriately skilled workforce at the modification facility and an increase in certification complexity and requirements has caused delays to the In-Service Date and subsequent milestones. As the aircraft completes its modification, the certification schedule is emerging as the critical path.
Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from 2053 to 1962. This is primarily due to the following factors. This is primarily as a consequence of programme contextual changes in the aircraft acquisition contract.
Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)
Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Infrastructure and Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 decreased from Amber to Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. There are affordability and equipment delivery schedule risks and issues. These will be addressed in the Full Business Case that is planned for submission to the Approving Authority in the first half of Financial Year 24/25.
Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained scheduled to finish on 2027-06-01. This is primarily due to the following factors. Although unchanged from last year, the Programme’s scheduled end date is currently seeking revision as challenges within the global supply chain, retention of an appropriately skilled workforce at the modification facility and an increase in certification complexity in the aviation sector has caused delays to the In Service Date.
Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 increased from 1877m to 2053m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The result of more budget being released to match the forecast costs of the Programme. The WLC figure presented at Q4 23/24 is within the current Approved Budgetary Level for the Programme which remains unchanged from Q4 22/23. The final WLC will be included in the Programme’s Full Business Case.
Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)
Names, figures, dates, ratings and commentary are as the department reported them. Where a rating, cost or date is withheld, the file’s wording is shown. Every major project →