MOD · MOD_0136_2122-Q1
Department page: Ministry of Defence
| Data as at | Rating | End date | Whole-life cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2024 | Amber (the department's own assessment) | 22 March 2030 | Not Available |
| March 2025 | Amber (the department's own assessment) | 22 March 2030 | £20,264.02m (price basis not stated) |
| March 2026 | Amber (the department's own assessment) | 29 December 2029 | £14,352.16m (in 2024/25 prices) |
Each year’s cost is shown with its price basis. Costs are not compared between years: the March 2024 and March 2025 reports state no price basis, and from March 2026 costs are in 2024/25 prices.
This is the department’s own commentary. It may use different prices from the table above, so its figures may not match.
Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 25/26-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. The NSIGN Programme is rated Amber to reflect that it is delivering progress across all three Projects through the concept and assessment phases, while continuing to face a small number of significant and interrelated challenges. 2. Progress to date demonstrates a clear strategic direction, increased maturity of user requirements and options, and improved Programme level understanding of dependencies, risks and affordability drivers across the Ships, Submarines and Naval Bases Projects. 3. On going uncertainty on publication of the Defence Investment Plan creates constraints on long term affordability, limiting the Programme’s ability to fully de-risk subsequent delivery stages at this point.
Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same at 22/03/2030. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. The baseline of the programme and the Integrated Programme Schedules support the deliverability assessment, but timelines remain challenging to contract award with programmes meeting either the current Future Maritime Support Programme expiry dates for planned Future Martime Support Programme extensions (in 2026 and 2028). 2. The active close management of Future Maritime Support Programme Extensions alongside the NSIGN activity are key to mitigating the risks to continuity of service delivery.
Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from £20264.02M to £17000.81M. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Programme level Cost Modelling will be finalised on publication of the Defence Investment Plan. 2. The current marginal (<1%) whole life affordability challenge (against a total assessed expenditure of £20bn over 10 years) will be resolved through further cost-modelling and challenge prior to the the NSIGN Ships Invitation to Negotiate (as part of the Outline Business Case approval and Naval Base Outline Business Case and NSIGN Subs Full Business Case in Quarter 1 26/27).
Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors. Following an Assurance Review concluding Red in July 2024 the Programme and Projects have progressed significantly with a subsequent NISTA Assurance Review upgrading Delivery Confidence to Amber, reflecting the significant progress with the maturity of the NSIGN (Submarines) Outline Business Case and the commercial strategy. The programme has made considerable progress, mobilising projects, progressing with project procurement and commercial strategies.
Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 22/03/2030. This is primarily due to the following factors. The baseline of the Project and the Integrated Programme Schedules support the deliverability assessment, but timelines remain challenging to contract award with Projects meeting either the current Future Maritime Support Programme (FMSP) expiry dates (in 2026) or the revised expiry dates for the planned extensions (for the period 2026-2028). The active close management of FMSP Extensions alongside the NSIGN activity are key to mitigating the risks to continuity of service delivery.
Cost: The project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) is 20264. This is primarily due to the following factors. Work is ongoing as part of the current concept phase activity to finalise the Programme Cost Model. A full affordability assessment will be made once the Spending Review has concluded. The current marginal (<1%) whole life affordability challenge (against a total assessed expenditure of £20bn over 10 years) will be resolved through further cost-modelling and challenge prior to the submission of the Naval Support Integrated Global Network (NSIGN) Ships and Naval Base Outline Business Case's and NSIGN Subs Full Business Case in Q3 25/26.
Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)
Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. This reflects the significant progress made by the Programme through the difficult early phase of mobilisation and accurately reflects the challenges of mobilisation, scope definition, solution design and alignment.
Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 increased from 2029-03-22 to 2029-09-25. This is primarily due to the following factors. Changes in key milestones reflect the delay on transition to the Concept Phase, as a result of a protracted Strategic Outline Case approval and the reality of a Programme early in the scoping and solution design phase.
Cost: With scope and solution design still to be finalised in May 2024, the full cost model and analysis of affordability has not been completed.
Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)
Names, figures, dates, ratings and commentary are as the department reported them. Where a rating, cost or date is withheld, the file’s wording is shown. Every major project →