GROUND BASED AIR DEFENCE (GBAD)

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25 Q4, the NISTA/SRO Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26 Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. 1. Over the past 12 months, delivery confidence has remained Amber primarily due to challenges associated with the transition from early capability delivery into more complex programme integration. Increased cost pressures, particularly within elements of the short-range air defence capability, have raised affordability concerns against available funding. 2. In parallel, resource constraints across both the programme team and delivery organisations have impacted the pace of progress and contributed to schedule pressure. 3. Dependencies on wider Defence activity, including infrastructure and investment decisions, have also introduced uncertainty and limited the programme’s ability to progress at the required rate. 4. Collectively, these factors reflect the growing complexity of delivering an integrated, modernised air defence system, requiring continued alignment of funding, resource and dependencies to support future delivery confidence.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the programme's end-date at 25/26-Q4 remained the same at 31/12/2033.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 25/26-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from £2967.59M to £1589.63M. This is due to the programme having undertaken a rebaselining exercise against a revised affordable envelope.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors. Principal areas which have led to this delivery confidence were the resourcing of more programme staff, the adoption of a more holistic approach to programme delivery and a more realistic programme roadmap.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 31/12/2033.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 2237 to 2967. This is primarily due to the following factors. Increases to Short-Range Air Defence (SHORAD) and the relatively immaturity of some of the cost estimates that will be refined and revised up to and post OBC for each of the project lines.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: The Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The programme has sustained progress in addressing recommendations of its IPA strategic review, including the resourcing of more programme staff, and the adoption of a more holistic approach to programme delivery, and a more realistic programme roadmap.

Schedule: The project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 is scheduled to finish on 2033-12-30.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 decreased from 2303m. to 2237m. This is primarily due to the following factors. Financial reconciliation and refinement of the first two capability uplift packages (CUPs) during financial year 23/24 has resulted in a decrease to the programme’s WLC at Q4. Future CUPs were discussed as part of the Autumn 2023 Balance of Investment process where Army Headquarters agreed in principle to increase the funding for the overall programme, specifically to increase volumes of medium range and short range air defence systems, counter small Unmanned Aircraft Systems.  The Army continues to review the programme’s funding profile in conjunction with the MOD Complex Weapons elements of the programme pending the MOD munition strategy and updated costs.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)