PFI Prison Expiry and Transfer Tranche 2

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the NISTA Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26-Q4 has increased from Amber to Green. This is primarily due to the agreement to move the remaining HMP Rye Hill operator competition to a later tranche, meaning the remaining delivery is now approaching completion following the successful transfer of services and exit of the existing PFI contracts at HMPs Ashfield and Forest Bank and the delivery of HMP Rye Hill Houseblock expansion.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project at 25/26-Q4 remains scheduled to finished on 31/10/26. The project is on track to deliver against the baseline schedule following the transfer of remaining HMP Rye Hill activity to a later Tranche.

Cost: The HMT-agreed Whole Life Cost for 25/26-Q4 has decreased from £3,862.165m to £2,730.04m. All costs have been reported in 2024/25 base prices in line with NISTA requirements. This is a change from previous years where costs were reported in nominal prices. All costs reflect this accounting reduction regardless of any actual changes.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ Limited contingency and the complexity of the expiry and transfer activities still to be delivered.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 31/07/2026 to 31/10/2026. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The project has re-baselined its schedule having applied lessons learned from the PFI Tranche 1 project.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from 4347 to 3862. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The decrease is due to a correction of modelled costs for the additional houseblock at HMP Rye Hill.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. The limited contingency and complexity of the expiry and transfer activities still to be delivered.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 remained schedule to finish on 2026-07-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. The project is on track to deliver against the baseline schedule.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 increased from 1544m. to 4347m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The expansion of the project scope following the addition of the Rye Hill Houseblock Expansion from the Houseblocks and Refurbishments Programme.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)