PFI Prison Expiry and Transfer Tranche 3

Rating: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the NISTA Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) rating at 25/26-Q4 has remained at Amber. This is primarily due to the addition of the HMP Rye Hill houseblock to project scope, and ongoing costing and scheduling challenges which continue in HMP & YOI Parc.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's end date at 25/26-Q4 has increased from 28/01/28 to 31/07/29. This is primarily due to the addition of remaining HMP Rye Hill activity to project scope, and the need to finalise the schedule for the HMP & YOI Parc Houseblock.

Cost: Compared to financial year 24/25-Q4, the project's Whole Life Costs at 25/26-Q4 decreased from £4,614.55m to £3,335.69m. This is primarily due to successful procurement competitions yielding savings against forecasted affordability thresholds. This figure does not reflect the transfer of HMP Rye Hill competition re-run. All costs have been reported in 2024/25 base prices in line with NISTA requirements. This is a change from previous years where costs were reported in nominal prices. All costs reflect this accounting reduction regardless of any actual changes.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: The Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 is AMBER. This is due to‚ This is due to the limited contingency and complexity of the expiry and transfer activities still to be delivered.

Schedule: The project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 is scheduled to be 28/01/2028. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The project is on track to deliver against the baseline schedule.

Cost: The project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) is 4614. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The Whole Life Costs are based on the most recent business case and include optimism bias.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)