Future Population and Migration Statistics (FPMS) Programme

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 decreased from RED to AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ Certainty around the programmes funding and direction following approval of the Outline Business Case (OBC) Refresh and successful delivery of core objectives over its initial period of design and build. Most notable have been key successes in the admin data research and delivery. With key publications released to help support and progress this work forward. The programme continues to engage with users to ensure appropriate statistical design, assure statistical methods and to convey admin data quality. The agreement by the UK Statistics Authority board on the recommendation resulting in a refreshing of the business case during 2025-26.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 increased from 31/10/2024 to 30/06/2025. This is primarily due to the following factors‚ The project submitted an Outline Business Case (OBC) Refresh to HM Treasury in October 2023, this provided the programme’s first three years (up to 31 March 2026) funding. Additional funding will be sought via a Full Business Case (FBC) which will aim to deliver the objectives of the programme further as the programme continues to iterate.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project’s departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24-25-Q4 (measured in £m) increased from 27 to 83. This is primarily due to the following factors: The Whole Life Costs for the 2023 / 2024 Financial Year were revised in 24-25-Q1 to £28.491m, following an allowed £2m switch in budget from IDP to FPMS. The Whole Life Costs are showing as £82.611m as per our period 11 reporting for the 2024 / 2025 Financial Year, a year on year increase of £54m. These costs are in relation to the approval of the Outline Business Case (OBC) refresh that was submitted in October 2023 and approval of the Spending Review. Further forecasts will be added to the above figure in the next return as the programme continues to progress towards its next Business Case.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: The Senior Responsible Owner's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 is Red. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Programme is continuing at risk as a decision is still pending on the Outline Business Case (OBC) Refresh with no confirmed funding for FPMS beyond 31 March 2024. A high level 2 year plan for the Programme has been drafted although this is funding dependent. Once confirmation of funding is received, the scope may need to be revised. However, the Programme is delivering considerable success most notably a plan to publish admin-based population estimates later in the year alongside the plan to improve quality for further publications. The Programme continues to engage users to ensure appropriate statistical design, assure statistical methods and to convey admin data quality.

Schedule: The project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 is 2024-10-31. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Programme has no confirmed funding beyond 31 March 2024. We are awaiting the outcome of the Outline Business Case (OBC) Refresh. If approved, work to develop the Full Business Case (FBC) will commence and will reflect the planning and delivery that is ongoing to ensure high quality, timely population statistics publications are produced with the emphasis on administrative data to maximise these data sets.

Cost: The project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 is 27m. This is primarily due to the following factors. The Whole Life Costs are showing as the 28.72m as per our period 11 reporting for the 2023 / 2024 Financial Year. These costs are in relation to the Design and Build phases and once confirmation of 2024 / 2025 funding based on the Outline Business Case (Refresh) is received at the Main Estimate fiscal event, further forecasts will be added to the above figure in the next return.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)