Natural History Museum Unlocked

Rating: The Delivery Confidence Assessment (DCA) at 2025/26 Q4 is Amber, the same rating as provided at 2024/25 Q4. The contract for construction at Thames Valley Science Park was awarded at the start of the 2025/26 Financial Year and full contract works commenced on site shortly after. Construction has since progressed well, though it is felt that an Amber rating is appropriate for the programme due to the following factors: (i) A significant amount of procurement remains to be completed (ii) There are a number of complex dependencies which have the potential to impact programme delivery (iii) Even a small change to the construction schedule can have a significant impact on the phasing of programme spend

Schedule: The programme's end date remains September 2031, which is the same date reported at 2024/25 Q4. Construction has progressed slightly ahead of schedule during 2025/26 and is expected to conclude in Summer 2027. Plans for the storage fit out and handover of the building are being finalised, alongside the schedule for moving collections to the new site.

Cost: The programme's Whole Life Cost (WLC) remains £221m, the same figure reported at 2024/25 Q4. Please note figures referenced in the narratives were entered as nominal and the system automatically converts them to Real Terms.

Source: NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 (data)

Rating: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 24/25-Q4 remained at AMBER. This is primarily due to the following factors: At the end of the 24/25 Financial Year, the construction contract for the new building at TVSP was still being negotiated. Although funding for Unlocked was confirmed through the approval of the Final Business Case in January 2025, the agreement of the contract was key to enabling budget certainty and no delays to the construction timeline. It was therefore felt that an Amber DCA was more appropriate whilst contract negotiations were ongoing, though it should be noted that the construction contract has subsequently been awarded.

Schedule: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's end-date at 24/25-Q4 remained at 30/09/2031. This is primarily due to the following factors: Critical programme activity in 2024/25, including approval of the programme's Final Business Case and negotiation of the construction contract, continued on track or with small delays which were within tolerance levels. This means that the programme's projected end date remained the same as it was at the end of 2023/24.

Cost: Compared to financial year 23/24-Q4, the project's departmentally agreed Whole Life Cost at 24/25-Q4 (measured in £m) decreased from 228 to 221. This is primarily due to the following factors: The financial figures reported at the end of the 24/25 Financial Year are from the Final Business Case (FBC), approved by Treasury in January 2025. In 23/24, figures from the 2023 Outline Business Case (OBC) were being reported, which included some associated programme costs that are no longer in the core Unlocked budget.

Source: NISTA Annual Report 2024-25 (data)

Rating: The Infrastructure Project Authority's Delivery Confidence Assessment rating at 23/24-Q4 is Amber. This is primarily due to the following factors. Rating remains at amber. This follows an IPA Gate 0 review in February 2024 which saw the programme given a delivery confidence assessment of amber, noting that work was continuing at pace across the various projects and that there has been significant positive progress since the approval of the Outline Business Case. Following the review, three actions are being implemented ahead of Full Business Case submission over the summer: 1. Modelling the direct and indirect costs of delay in FBC approval and determining optimum timing for FBC submission. 2. Providing a greater emphasis on the more immediate benefits of the programme in the FBC. 3. Developing a critical path and dependencies map for the collections move project, given its complexity and length.

Schedule: The project's end-date at 23/24-Q4 is 2031-09-30. This is primarily due to the following factors. Currently, there is no deviation from the planned schedule.

Cost: Compared to financial year 22/23-Q4, the project's departmental-agree Whole Life Cost at 23/24-Q4 decreased from 229m. to 228m. This is primarily due to the following factors: As of 23/24 Q4, the total project forecast is 230.12m, amounting to a variance of 0.7%. Forecasts for FY 23/24 have been reviewed in detail for known and probable variances, with subsequent financial years being updated to reflect predicted costs and possible inflation at that time. We are currently forecasting an overspend for 2023/24. This is lower than our agreed 20% flexibility and predominantly due to reprofiling of professional fees related to the construction of the new centre from 24/25.

Source: IPA Annual Report 2023-24 (data)